World Cup 2026 Betting Tips: Monday 22 June

Monday’s card is a proper trap for the lazy punter. Three of the four matches look like coupon-fillers on paper — short favourites against overmatched opponents — but the World Cup has already punished anyone betting on reputation alone. Below I walk through all four Group I and Group J fixtures, the numbers behind them, and where I think the actual value sits rather than where the favourites’ badges tell you to look.

TL;DR: What you need to know in 30 seconds

Argentina are heavy favourites against Austria, with Lionel Messi one goal from breaking Miroslav Klose’s all-time World Cup scoring record after his hat-trick against Algeria. France should brush aside debutants Iraq in their "group of death" fixture. Norway versus Senegal is the genuine coin-flip of the day and the match I’d build around. Jordan versus Algeria is a near mirror of the French favourite-versus-minnow script. The smart money avoids the cramped short prices on the big names and hunts goal markets and the one tight contest on the slate.

All odds below are decimal, sourced as a consensus snapshot at roughly 10:00 ET on 22 June. Treat them as indicative — they were moving quickly and should be confirmed against a licensed operator before you bet.

Argentina v Austria (Group J)

Argentina are 1.58 to win, with the draw at 3.65 and Austria out at 5.38. The defending champions arrive unbeaten on an eight-match winning run, and the storyline is irresistible: Messi sits on 16 World Cup goals, level with Klose, after a hat-trick against Algeria. A win virtually secures Argentina’s place in the knockouts.

Austria are no pushovers — they beat Jordan 3–1 in their opener and captain David Alaba is fit. But they’ve lost Christoph Baumgartner for the tournament. At 1.58 Argentina offer little value as a straight win; the more interesting angle is Messi to score, given the record chase and Argentina’s expected dominance (some models put their win probability around 65%).

"We know what kind of opponent we’re up against, what kind of quality they have in their ranks, even besides Messi, but also what they’re capable of as a team." — David Alaba, Austria captain (Al Jazeera, 21 June)

France v Iraq (Group I)

This is as lopsided as the board gets: France 1.08, the draw 7.68, Iraq a remarkable 27.84. Iraq are at their first World Cup since 1986 and arrive on the back of a 4–1 thumping by Norway. Opta’s model gives France an 88.5% win probability. Kylian Mbappé, already France’s all-time top scorer after his brace against Senegal, could make his 100th appearance here.

At 1.08 there is nothing to back in the match-result market — you’re risking $100 to win $8. The value, if any, lives in goals and player props rather than the outcome. This is a fixture to enjoy, not to stake heavily on.

Norway v Senegal (Group I) — the bet of the day

Here is the one genuinely competitive fixture: Norway 2.04, draw 3.41, Senegal 3.22. Norway have won 11 straight competitive matches and Erling Haaland has scored in 11 consecutive Norway games, including a brace on his World Cup debut. Senegal, beaten 1–3 by France, need a result to keep their knockout hopes alive.

Opta leans Norway’s way (45.0% Norway / 25.4% draw / 29.6% Senegal). With Haaland in this kind of form and Norway’s win streak, the home side at 2.04 is the closest thing to value on Monday’s card — and Haaland anytime scorer is the prop that fits the narrative. Both Senegal’s Koulibaly and Norway’s knocks (Wolfe, Ryerson) have cleared up, so team news doesn’t change the read.

Jordan v Algeria (Group J)

Algeria are 1.47 favourites, the draw 3.98, Jordan 6.24. Algeria were beaten 0–3 by Argentina but have Riyad Mahrez returning to the XI. Jordan, who lost 1–3 to Austria, will be without the doubtful Abdallah Nasib but can call on Ali Olwan, scorer of Jordan’s first-ever World Cup goal. It’s another favourite-versus-underdog script; at 1.47 Algeria are fair but unspectacular, and the draw at 3.98 has appeal if you fancy a cagey, must-not-lose Jordan performance.

My Monday verdict

If I’m putting one bet on, it’s Norway to beat Senegal at 2.04 — the only fixture where the price and the likely outcome are honestly balanced, with Haaland’s form as the tiebreaker. The three short-priced favourites (Argentina, France, Algeria) are best left alone in the match-result market; if you want exposure to them, do it through goalscorer and goals markets where the value isn’t already baked out. Your next step: check the Norway line in AUD across a licensed operator such as Rabona and take the best available price. For more on spotting mispriced lines, our value betting tips guide is the natural next step, and the World Cup 2026 odds hub tracks the outright market.

Odds are decimal and indicative consensus figures as of ~10:00 ET, 22 June 2026; confirm before betting. Gamble responsibly — 18+, set limits, and use BetStop if you need to take a break.